Ageing energy infrastructure stands in the way of the steps needed to ready Britain for a near-future of sweltering summer temperatures.
It’s the year 2050. The UK is sweltering in 40 degree heat and then some. Water supply is being carefully rationed. Businesses are feeling the squeeze as consumers stay at home, and emergency services are rushed off their feet. That’s the stark reality we’re headed for according to the Climate Change Committee’s latest report. And as we emerge from one of the hottest Mays on record, and brace for a ‘Super El Niño’ in a matter of weeks, it’s not longer hard to picture the scenario.
But the report itself is largely positive in that it presents affordable, achievable adaptations that could help prepare us for this new reality. Top of the list: air conditioning. Easy to install and eminently scalable, the report recommends a country-wide rollout across homes and businesses to help keep the public cool, starting with hospitals and care homes.
However, there is a catch. Aircon may be a no-brainer when it comes to adapting the UK to extreme heat, but how will we power it? With cooling solutions currently installed in just 5% of UK homes, a national rollout of this power-intensive hardware will require considerable capacity on the grid. And, right now, our ageing energy infrastructure is near its limit.
A burnt-out grid
With parts of the network dating back around 100 years, the UK’s grid is facing levels of demand it was never built to handle. Electrification has seen consumer energy demand soar, while a surge in renewable energy projects and ambitious data centre plans are putting ever more pressure on an already overwhelmed grid.
As a result, capacity constraints are fuelling considerable connection queues. Prior to recent reforms, hundreds of GW worth of energy projects were unable to join the network, facing waits of up to 10 years to be connected. With bottlenecks persisting, a grid connection has become prime real estate. Any new cooling solutions will join this fierce competition for a coveted space on the grid before they can grace the inside of UK homes.
Wasted power potential
In stark contrast, generating the energy needed to power UK-wide aircon is much less of a problem. Ironically, rising temperatures are themselves helping to bolster supply. The success of a significant renewable energy push across the UK and Europe, coupled with more frequent sunny weather, has led to a spike in solar energy production. But a lot of this energy is going to waste.
The issue lies, once again, in the grid. Our energy infrastructure has not been upgraded or adapted at the same rate as generation and demand have evolved. Renewable energy sources, like solar, are also more variable than traditional gas alternatives, placing a different set of pressures on the grid. Adaptations are needed, alongside additional capacity, to enable the grid to manage and transport this energy effectively. Until then, the promising solar surplus, which could offer a sustainable way to power air conditioning in people’s homes, will continue to go unused.
Getting a grip on the grid
The adaptations required to protect the UK against rising temperatures are at the complete mercy of our ageing energy infrastructure. Plans have to start acknowledging this and incorporating grid adaptations as a central part of proposals if they are to have any chance of coming to fruition. Meanwhile, clear commitments are needed from leaders to action these and upgrade the current infrastructure, through both expanding and optimising the grid.
New technologies, such as AI and digital modelling, could help to accelerate this, by enabling us to better identify and understand the constraints at play. These tools can help locate additional capacity within the infrastructure, lowering the cost and extent of expansion. They can also be used to virtually model the impact of installing air conditioning in different parts of the country. This can guide more strategic planning and help identify crunch points where the grid may struggle to keep up with demand.
The climate is only getting hotter and air conditioning will have to become an essential feature of UK homes over the next 25 years. But for this to happen fast enough and at the scale required to keep people and the environment safe from rising temperatures, we must get a grip on the grid.
It’s time we stopped treating this critical infrastructure as the elephant in the room and acknowledged it as the necessary foundation for delivering a safer, secure future. Fail to make the adaptations it needs and we’ll watch all hopes of keeping cool in an increasingly hot world melt away.
Image: Federico Beccari / Unsplash
Taco Engelaar is Senior Vice President at Neara, a specialist in energy network and grid management.
More on the grid:
Electric bus depots trial smart charging to help balance National Grid
Solar carports and EV integration can help UK’s net zero grid
Grid reform, delivery deficit: the planning sector must engage beyond policy