As Heathrow confirms its busiest year on record, industry projections show double the number of passengers by 2050, a rate of expansion ‘irreconcilable’ with climate goals.
According to a study by Transport & Environment, projections by the world’s biggest commercial aircraft manufacturers – Airbus and Boeing – suggest a 100% increase in the number of people arriving into and departing from airports across the continent over the next quarter century.
This will involve burning 59% more fuel by 2050 than in 2019, negating any benefits of improved efficiency. By this century’s halfway point, airlines serving EU airports will consume 21.1Mt of kerosene each year, extracting 1.9billion barrels of crude oil from world markets.
Growth is predicted to be so strong that the use of alternative, lower-emission fuels will not be enough to offset the increased demand. By 2050, for example, 24.2Mt of bio-kerosene could help reduce reliance on pure fossil fuels, but Transport & Environment suggests four-in-five litres of biofuel would come from unsustainable feedstocks.
E-fuels, which are usually far greener and produced using renewable electricity, will be unable to keep apace with the rise in flights and passengers. By 2050, 35% of all fuel will need to include an e-fuel blend according to EU Sustainable Aviation Fuel laws – known as Refuel Aviation – which would equate to 24.2Mt of e-kerosene within the next 25 years. However, the energy required to produce this amount would be higher than Germany’s total electricity demand in 2023: 506TWh.
The study shows the aviation sector’s growth is impossible without sustained environmental damage, with Airbus and Boeing growth scenarios placing 2050 industry emissions at just 3% lower than they were in 2019. Moreover, it also highlights how the current rate of expansion, and slow pace of transition to more sustainable fuels, means the entire carbon budget for European aviation could be exhausted by 2026.
‘The numbers leave you speechless. The aviation industry’s plans for growth are completely irreconcilable with Europe’s climate goals and the scale of the climate crisis,’ said Jo Dardenne, Transport & Environment’s Aviation Director. ‘In a year, the sector will have exceeded its carbon allowance. A paradigm shift and real climate leadership are needed now to address the problem, or Europe’s planes will be eating up everyone else’s resources. The credibility of the sector is on the line.’
The report has been published as London Heathrow announced record passenger numbers for 2024, up 4.7million on the previous 12 months. In total, 83.9million people passed through it five terminals, surpassing the previous all-time-high in 2019 by 3million. 2025 is already expected to show another rise in use.
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