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Aviation economics: Heathrow’s third runway is in the wrong place

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been gearing up to declare support for a major expansion of flight capacity at Europe’s biggest airport. Few seem to be on side.

commercial airplane in flight

It’s certainly no surprise. An undying saga – in the zombie sense of the word – the idea of introducing a third runway to an already highly polluted and congested corner of the country, let along London, in the midst of a climate crisis, seems like lunacy. 

Nevertheless, the plot has continued to do the rounds since before the Covid-19 pandemic through questions over any talk of aviation investment at the kind of scale this would involve. Which, at the last estimate, was put at around £14billion. And now here it is again, just as Downing Street is scrabbling around desperate for ways to restart growth in the UK economy. 

The numbers are easy to be convinced by. According to the Government, a new Northwest Runway could bring in up to £61billion, reduce airfares by 20% and add around 40 routes from the hub. Jobs would clearly be created in the construction phase, and, to a lesser degree, for ongoing operations. 

According to environmental campaigners, though, the project would have a ‘catastrophic’ impact on Britain’s net zero and climate goals. Even with promises from Government that any proposals must show how they will contribute to economic growth and meet environmental targets in order to gain approval. 

‘Approving airport expansions would be a catastrophic misstep for a government which claims to be a climate leader,’ said Alethea Warrington, head of aviation at climate charity Possible. ‘This huge increase in emissions won’t help our economy, and would just encourage the small group of frequent flyers who take most of the flights, further worsening the UK’s huge tourism deficit.’

Other commentators seem more willing to acknowledge the benefits of expanding aviation infrastructure in the UK, and specifically South East England. But, rather than undertaking the hugely expensive and incredibly complex job of growing the monolithic Heathrow, an undertaking liable to result in delays due to the scale and effect, ‘oven ready’ plans already exist to boost capacity at Gatwick and Luton, while £1billion has already been confirmed for Stansted. 

‘Any signals from government that Heathrow’s expansion will not be impeded are meaningless, when other expansions in the South East will have already rendered Heathrow expansion uneconomic,’ said Paul McGuinness, chair of anti-Heathrow expansion group the No 3rd Runway Coalition. 

If Reeves does make an announcement this week, it will come hot on the heels of a recent analysis which showed current expectations for growth in Europe’s aviation market mean the sector will exhaust its remaining carbon budget by next year

More transport: 

West of England Combined Authority co-funds 40 Bristol bike hangars

European aviation sector will use entire carbon budget by 2026

Image: Sebastian Grochowicz via Unsplash

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