A new study has warned that the world is rapidly heading toward a solar panel waste crisis and, without urgent action, the heaviest burden will fall on developing countries least equipped to handle it.
Solar panels typically have a lifespan of 25 to 30 years, meaning the first generation of panels, installed during the early solar boom, is reaching retirement age. Researchers predict that global waste from expired panels could skyrocket to between 297 and 402 million tonnes by 2060, which is 150 to 200 times current levels.
While wealthier regions like the European Union currently generate the most waste, the geography of the problem is set to shift dramatically. By 2060, China, which has installed more solar capacity than any other nation, is expected to account for nearly 40% of the world’s solar waste, with India’s share also projected to nearly double.
The panels themselves contain a cocktail of valuable materials, including silicon, silver, copper and tellurium, alongside potentially hazardous substances like lead and cadmium. If simply dumped in landfills, these toxins leach into soil and groundwater, posing significant environmental risks. Recycling would recover critical resources and prevent this damage, yet the economics of this isn’t straightforward. The study found that even with technological improvements, recycling won’t become financially viable on a global scale for at least another decade.
This creates a profound fairness dilemma. The most efficient solution would see wealthy nations, which possess the best recycling technology, process waste shipped from elsewhere. However, this would concentrate economic benefits in the processing countries, leaving lower-income nations without the capacity or revenue to manage their own recycling.
To avert this inequity, researchers propose a tiered system of subsidies that would start high and taper off over time, giving poorer countries a window to develop their own recycling infrastructure. They also call for robust international cooperation, including technology transfer and dedicated funding to help lower-income regions build necessary facilities.
A co-author on the paper, Professor Jian Zuo from Adelaide University’s School of Civil Engineering and Construction Management said: ‘The cheapest or most efficient recycling pathway globally is not necessarily the fairest. If developing regions are left without the technology, infrastructure or investment needed to recycle solar panels, they risk missing out on the economic benefits while potentially carrying more of the environmental burden.
‘We need to think of solar panels as part of a circular economy rather than a disposable product.
‘That means investing in recycling capacity, sharing technology and designing policies that allow all regions to participate in the economic and environmental benefits of the solar transition.’
The full research can be read here.
Photo: Seyfettin Geçit