As headlines focus on the oil and gas crisis brought about by Tehran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Britain’s agricultural supply chain is also bracing for impact.
Prior to outbreak of war in Iran, around one-third of all fertilisers distributed via seaborne routes were passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Alongside urea and ammonia, these agricultural resources also require gas to power processes with a significant proportion of producers based in the Middle East as a result. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Iran are all major players in the sector.
All of which means the supply chain as a whole is incredibly vulnerable to the US and Israel-led conflict. For example, a single strike on a Qatari facility, orchestrated by Tehran, apparently led to around one-seventh of global fertiliser supplies being disrupted. And, ceasefire or not, this instability is predicted to continue for some time. All of which is happening at a time when the market has yet to recover from the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which saw wholesale costs shoot to $815 per tonnes by April 2022, compared with $200 per tonne in 2020.
‘UK farmers – as well as those elsewhere – are rightly highlighting the risks of higher farm input costs, especially of red diesel and fertilizer, because of the Iran conflict. They are also simultaneously facing increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather events due to accelerating climate change,’ says Vicki Hird, strategic lead on agriculture, The Wildlife Trusts. The deluges that put productive fields underwater in 2023/24 led to millions of pounds of government intervention to protect farmers with flooded fields.
‘British people deserve better than constant food inflation and occasionally empty shelves,’ she continues. ‘And British farmers would prefer not to be locked into the current, fragile, just-in-time, intensive supply chain that binds them to a vulnerable, insecure business model that is unfit for the future. Everyone deserves better and increasingly there is proof that a better system is possible.’
This is, of course, a reference to nature-based and regenerative farming methods. According to Nature Friendly Farm Network and The Wildlife Trusts, income from agriculture that does not rely on high cost inputs, and instead takes advantage of existing ecosystems, can offer a 10 to 45% increase in revenue. Although there are key differences in the type of farming: commercial return could rise by 45.3% for lowland livestock, 39.1% for upland livestock, 32.7% for dairy systems, and 9.5% for lowland arable farms.
The Wildlife Trusts has now proposed three key policy changes it believes can improve UK food security and resilience to both climate change and future global trade crises. These are:
Short term
Investment – public and private – into nature-based farm systems that use natural tools to fertilise crops and manage pests. This should be via green farming schemes, regulated nature markets, independent and affordable advice and farm-based research and demonstration. We need to build resilient farming systems that use natural solutions. Our research in 2024 suggested this requires at least £5.9 billion (£6,169,273 taking account of inflation) in annual investment to restore nature and meet climate goals in the UK (9).
Rapidly review farmgate deals, prices and price cost increase requests and consider how to strengthen the Groceries Code Adjudicator and Agriculture Supply Chain Adjudicator powers to work together to intervene to tackle unfair treatment of primary producers.
Review UK land use as part of the Land Use Framework to assess inefficient land uses such as for biofuels, industrial livestock feeds, ultra processed foods, and food waste.
Long term shifts in food system
Government must use the Land Use Framework, 25 year Farming Roadmap and the National Food Strategy, alongside better farm transition support, to deliver resilient farming. Together, the efforts of farmers, food businesses and governments must provide a step change in the food we eat and how it is produced.
A new horticulture strategy covering sustainable production, supply chains and demand and investment in new local food infrastructure for regional, less extractive supply chains
Build consumer awareness and action on healthier, sustainable more diverse diets and reduce demand for industrial meat which uses excessive crops as feed, and which pollutes soils and rivers. Public procurement of food such as food for schools and hospitals should support food from nature-friendly, low-input local farm systems.
You can read a full report on this here.
Image: Shaah Shahidh / Unsplash
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