The world’s second largest economy has unveiled a raft of five year plans in 2026. It’s becoming impossible to deny that Western climate policy needs to keep up.
There have long been two arguments about Beijing popularised by climate deniers and net zero sceptics. Firstly, that environmental collapse was invented by China in a bid to bankrupt European and North American economies. Secondly, no matter how successful Western decarbonisation is, the positive impact is insignificant because China’s emissions are so high.
Suffice to say, 99.9% of the scientific community is sure the first conspiracy theory doesn’t ring anything close to the truth. More so, they have the evidence to back this up. As for case two, it’s certainly true that China is the world’s largest emissions source — accounting for 35% of total global carbon output. However, when you break it down to individual responsibility, per person rates are lower than the United States. Historical cumulative industrial CO2 production also remains dominated by Western powers. In comparison, China — which only industrialised in the second half of the 20th Century — is expected to see carbon output peak by 2030, and is far and away the single biggest investor in renewable power today.
In 2026, the government in Beijing has published a slew of the five year plans that have long been at the centre of China’s policymaking approach, and subsequent analysis of economic development and progress. Carbon Brief has been tracking and analysing the 72 individual agendas covering the 15th Chinese five year plan period, and the organisation’s summaries are now available online.
Key takeaways include:
- Reduce carbon intensity by 17%
- Non-fossil energy makes up 25% of total energy consumption
- Total forest cover rate to reach 25.8%
- 5,800 m tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in total energy production capacity
- Green production and lifestyles to have taken shape
- Achieve the carbon peaking target as scheduled
- Establish a preliminary energy system that is “clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient
- Non-fossil energy sources’ share of total energy consumption to reach 25%
- Non-fossil power to reach 50% of power generation
- Reduce carbon emissions per unit of power generation by more than 10%
- Wind and solar to reach 50% of power capacity by 2030
- Installed capacity of biomass, solar thermal, geothermal and wave energy to reach 65GW
- Reduce carbon intensity by 17%
- Reduce CO2 emissions per unit of production at industries included in China’s national carbon market by around 3%
- Total forest cover rate to reach 25.8%
- Significantly enhance capabilities for monitoring, forecasting and warning of extreme weather
- Make major progress in Earth system forecasting and constructing Earth system data platforms
- Comprehensively strengthen basic capabilities in eco-environmental monitoring
- Green factories to produce 45% of all manufacturing output
- Build 500 zero-carbon factories
You can read the full analysis here.
By comparison, this week the UK Conservative Party announced a veritable bonfire of existing decarbonisation policies and net zero regulation which critics have warned could see Britain reclaim its lost title of ‘Europe’s Dirty Man’. Meanwhile, in the US Donald Trump continues laying waste to America’s green industries and hopes of keeping apace with what is increasingly likely to be a fossil fuel free (or close enough) future global economy.
Last week, the Energy Innovation Report was published and included some alarming figures for anyone living Stateside — the electricity, gas and oil legislation included in Trump’s highly controversial One Big Beautiful Bill Act will wind up costing households $6,500 more in energy payments between 2026 and 2040 compared with the Biden administration’s policies. 390,000 jobs could be lost per year due to cuts to innovation and domestic manufacturing advancement, while slower electrification could see individual state economies lose $1.3 trillion.
All of which makes it easy to point fingers at more conservative-minded politicians in the West, who seem reticent towards fossil fuel divestment. But it’s also crucial to understand that China is not a climate saviour for the greater good in all this. There are huge economic motivations for the enormous amount of money pouring into its green industries and renewables sectors.
Dr James Jackson and Mathias Larsen of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics recently published a book warning about the risk of attempting to compete with China on decarbonisation. A move that could slow climate progress down and see Britain miss major revenue streams through collaboration.
‘The UK has a great opportunity to benefit from China’s expertise in green manufacturing while using its own strengths in areas such as financial services. Deeper cooperation could support both decarbonisation and the UK’s ambitions to develop a stronger green economy,’ Dr Jackson explained.
While this sounds promising at a time when Downing Street is finally trying to come clean and admit there really is no money left in the coffers, and national growth remains painfully slow, it emphasises how aggressively Beijing is pursuing its goal of becoming the word’s biggest economy by controlling infrastructure and resources required for an electrified, carbon neutral world to function. So rather than fixating on the idea of full scale military conflict breaking out between the planet’s power blocs, the real alarm bells should be ringing over Chinese foreign policy on critical mineral supply chains, not to mention loans, investments and ownership of overseas energy infrastructure. Although it may already be too late for anyone to catch up.
Image: zhang kaiyv / Unsplash
More on China and decarbonisation:
How China’s toxic Huai River catalysed a nationwide anti-pollution drive
China drives global warming surge with air pollution clampdown
Precious metals: China’s copper market control threatens renewable supply chain resilience