Heathrow’s planned third runway could make it harder for the UK to meet its climate targets unless the aviation industry is required to pay for all of its emissions, the country’s independent climate advisers have warned.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) says the Government should put a strong ‘polluter pays’ system in place before allowing the expansion to go ahead. Under the proposed approach, aviation would need to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
The warning comes as the Government considers plans to expand Heathrow. The CCC says current policies are “insufficient” to cut emissions from aviation quickly enough.
Without the Heathrow expansion, aviation emissions are expected to remain broadly flat under the Government’s current trends scenario, rising from 37 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2025 to 39 million tonnes in 2050.
With the expansion, emissions are projected to reach 41.1 million tonnes in 2050 and 43.9 million tonnes by 2054, when the full development is expected to be complete.
The CCC estimates that the expansion would increase the UK’s remaining economy-wide emissions in 2050 by 6.9% compared with the level expected without it.
By then, aviation is expected to be such a large source of the emissions that cannot be eliminated that it will need to take responsibility for cleaning up its own pollution rather than relying on cuts in other parts of the economy.
The CCC has outlined a pathway in which aviation could reach net zero by 2050 through a combination of cleaner fuels, technology to remove carbon from the atmosphere, greater efficiency and slower growth in demand for flights.
Under this pathway, the Committee says the additional emissions caused by Heathrow’s expansion could be fully addressed by 2050.
However, this would come with higher costs for passengers. The CCC estimates that a return flight to Alicante could cost around £150 more by 2050, while a return trip to New York could cost about £400 more. It says this would be equivalent to around 6–9 pence per mile.
The Committee is also calling for the Government to strengthen the climate rules used to assess the Heathrow expansion. It says these should consider not only carbon budgets but the UK’s legally binding 2050 Net Zero target and the full expansion planned for 2054.
It also wants the Government to assess the climate impact of non-CO2 effects from flying, including contrails, as well as updating estimates for emissions from road and rail access and construction.
The CCC warned that only 32% of the aviation emissions cuts required by 2037 are currently backed by credible plans, alongside just 1% of the required reductions from engineered carbon removals.
The full report can be read here.
Photo: Harrison Lugard