How worried should we be about COP?
1,700 oil and gas delegates, a clamp down on human rights, and no negotiations on how the world will wean itself off fossil fuels. This year’s UN climate summit isn’t winning any popularity contests. Yet.
A week of news coming out of Azerbaijan, with only a few genuinely positive stories from an event that has the sole purpose of creating a greener and more pleasant world for us to live in. Something’s got to give.
Over the past five days we’ve seen Albanian premiers call out leaders of the richest nations for their arm’s length engagement with COP29. Those that actually managed to make it, with number ones from 13 of the biggest polluters on the planet absent.
Only yesterday we reported on the proposed 40×40 plastics treaty — cutting 40% of the world’s plastic production by 2040. And, specifically, how this still won’t be enough to secure 1.5C maximum global heating as stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Then there’s the fact that the single biggest step we can take in securing a liveable future, rapidly reducing fossil fuels, was finally agreed without a real plan at last year’s UN climate summit, but is also missing from the schedule this time round.
Beyond this, the 1,700 or so oil and gas lobbyists granted this year is significantly down on the number that attended COP28 in Dubai, but maybe when you allegedly have the ear of a country’s eager deputy Energy Minister, in this case Elnur Soltanov, you don’t need to send that many fossil fuel representatives. Reports suggest deals were as good as done prior to the summit opening on Monday.
With so much to question protests were inevitable, but as Amnesty International has reported, since the decision was made to hold the 2024 climate gathering in Baku, Azerbaijani authorities have cracked down on “all issues that the government may perceive critical or contrary to its political agenda.”
Just as worrying is how much this mirrors recent legislative changes closer to home. As we reported in February, the UK judiciary is being scrutinised because “peaceful protesters are being prosecuted and convicted under the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act 2022, contravening the UN Convention on Human Rights, posing a major threat to democratic process.”
So how worried should we be about the direction COP seems to be going in? Thinking back to the ‘momentous’ Paris summit that saw 196 countries negotiate one of the most referenced international agreements in the history of news reporting and there’s a chilling naivety to the memory.
In theory, of course everyone is up for a limit to global warming, but the reality of how to get there, and the cost, upheaval and problems decarbonisation en masse poses — not least the resource-heavy nature of much net zero infrastructure — still wasn’t really clear. One global pandemic, two presidential election wins for Donald Trump, Brexit and the wildfire spread of far right and populist movements across Europe have all contributed to a rise in scepticism, nihilism, and ohdearism when it comes to the environment. What once seemed possible increasingly seems impossible, and soon will be whether it actually is or not.
Mirroring the watering down of hopes and dreams, political and economic determination to save our own civilisation and countless other species from some form of doom or another, is it any surprise we’re seeing the summit designed to pull all the necessary actors together slowly become more problematic? The longer we drag out climate action, or inaction, the harder it gets for the summit to appear functional, genuine and useful. That’s a big red flag, too, because whether we like it or not big things do come out of COP, year-on-year. But when we rightly question its legitimacy a side effect is fuelling or aligning with deniers and agitators looking for new ways to discredit the event.
This year has also seen the UK begin to emerge from a dark decade of decline as a global climate leader. Yesterday, Minister for Development Anneliese Dodds commit Britain to supporting people in the ‘global south’ in transitioning away from burning wood, charcoal, and other high carbon fuels for cooking and heating. This was then followed by today’s announcement of almost £6million for the Middle East’s PHENOMENAL programme and the gender equality and climate-focused GAGGA Alliance.
‘This commitment recognises the vital work that women’s rights organisations do to support communities to adapt, respond to climate emergencies and lead the charge for stronger action on the climate crisis,’ said Francesca Rhodes, senior policy advisor on gender and climate at CARE International, in response. ‘We hope this is the start of the UK Government providing adequate levels of funding for gender equality in climate action.’
Small blessings, so far, but it’s important to see this in context. As we reported during last year’s climate summit, one of the resounding messages was that climate finance was in dire straits and urgently needed boosting in order to stand a chance at decarbonisation and switching our current trajectory.
It seems inevitable that before the negotiations are done next weekend there will be more significant deals done tied to finance, insurance, and compensation, which is both welcome but depressing in its spotlighting of the fact climate change is now well underway, and adaptation is essential. How much we will see in headline-grabbing investment into infrastructure and technologies is, of course, another question altogether.
More on COP29:
COP29 secures 60% finance boost for low-middle income countries
Keeping up with negotiations: COP29 tracker monitors progress
Industrial Transition Accelerator: COP must deliver $1tn investment
40% plastic production reduction won’t limit global warming to 1.5C
Image: Dario Daniel Silvavia Unsplash