40% plastic production reduction won’t limit global warming to 1.5C
The fourth round of plastic treaty negotiations at COP29 proposed for a dramatic cut in the industry’s output. But a new study shows this will not be enough.
Tabled by Rwanda and Peru, a 40% reduction in plastic production by 2040 has been suggested at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan this morning.
But according to a report by Eunomia Research and Consulting, commissioned by the Environmental Investigation Agency, this will not limit the sector’s emissions enough to meet the Paris Agreement of 1.5C global warming above pre-industrial levels. 2024 will be the first year in which worldwide average temperatures consistently reached this marker.
However, although the so-called ’40×40′ target will not be enough alone, the study modelled two scenarios; usual and reduced demand with wider decarbonisation and sustainability measures. For example, increased rates of recycling. Based on this, the report concluded that:
*Business as usual growth trajectories show the plastics industry will breach the 1.5C emissions commitment by 360%
*40×40 reduction pathway, coupled with a reduction in demand of 35%, and industry-wide decarbonisation, would still overshoot 1.5C by 40%, equivalent to 1.7C warming
*With current demand, a minimum 63% global recycling rate will be needed to achieve 40×40
*All action assumes production, demand and greenhouse gas output peak in 2025, followed by a rapid downward trend
‘This report provides a clear analytical base for what signatories of the Bridge to Busan are calling for. Addressing plastic production is the sine qua non of an effective plastic pollution treaty,’ said Dennis Clare, legal advisor for the Federated State of Micronesia, which hosted the fourth round of plastic treaty talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, earlier today.
‘It is clear that if we are to align the future global plastics treaty with the Paris climate goals the key will be ambition and political will. This report shows that there is still a huge gap between what governments believe is politically achievable and what is required to prevent climate catastrophe. The time to commit to a global reduction target and peak plastic is now,’ added Christina Dixon, ocean campaign leader from the Environmental Investigation Agency.
More on waste and recycling and COP29:
Industrial Transition Accelerator: COP must deliver $1tn investment
Keeping up with negotiations: COP29 tracker monitors progress
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Image: Killari Hotaru via Unsplash