Atlantic currents could collapse completely by 2050
Oceanic flow, including the Gulf Stream, could come to a total stop by mid-century, threatening Northern Europe’s climate.
Despite previous scientific assumptions being that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – or AMOC – would continue to flow indefinitely, a new study suggest this could be a wildly optimistic hope.
According to researchers at the Department of Physics at the Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, the window for AMOC’s collapse could be within the next 20 to 50 years. Potentially, this vital natural system could end between 2037 and 2064, although the most likely period would be between 2050 and 2057.
Rising temperatures, driven by greenhouse gas emissions, are leading to significantly more meltwater entering the North Atlantic from the Greenland ice sheet. This is reducing the salinity of the ocean in the region, making seawater less dense. In turn, this is slowing the current down at the crucial point where it dives deep into the ocean.
While it is not clear what the exact impact of AMOC collapse would be, the system is directly responsible for maintaining mild temperatures across Northern Europe, including the UK. Should this stop, many countries could see thermometers plummet by between 5 and 15C on average.
Meanwhile, it’s likely that as this region of the Northern Hemisphere cools, the opposite will be true on the other side of the globe. This means Australia and South America, already hotspots for challenging heat waves and wild fires, would likely be left to endure even higher temperatures as heat lingers.
More on climate change and net zero:
Nature restoration must guide UK woodland creation, not easy land acquisition
Will Scotland finally ban bottom-trawling fishing in protected areas?
Image: Guillaume Bassem