‘Research underscores how scenarios underestimated the potential of less exciting but proven solutions’.
According to a new study published to mark the 25th anniversary of the University of Manchester’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, the UK has used significantly less energy than most expert predictions made at that time. However, the opportunity to capitalise on this has been largely missed.
‘Decarbonising the UK revisited: reflecting on 20 years of UK energy system scenarios and their policy implications’ includes energy scenarios proposed by the Tyndall Centre in 2000, in addition to more than 80 alternatives presented by external experts and organisations.
From these, just one — the so called ‘Red’ scenario — came close to accurately gauging how much energy we are actually using today. The reality is far lower than all other estimates, which often included unproven technologies when modelling.
This shows that tried and tested energy efficiency steps — such as improving insulation, installing low energy lightbulbs, and turning appliances off — are actually more effective at bringing demand down compared with technologies. In contrast, optimism over new innovations frequently outshines everyday solutions, in turn impacting policy.
‘Our research underscores how scenarios underestimated the potential of the less exciting but proven solutions – things like energy efficiency, public transport, home insulation – while being too optimistic about how quickly seemingly promising technologies like fossil fuel with carbon capture and storage would actually materialise at scale,’ said Dr Gaurav Gharde, lead researcher and author.
‘Climate change is accelerating and already impacting on people’s everyday lives, yet our ambition has been failing to meet the scale of the challenge,’ added Professor Alice Larkin, co-author of the report. ‘With time running out, we need to better understand how to reconfigure existing technologies and behaviours, so we can transition more rapidly to a low-energy, low-carbon society.’
Image: Matei Pruteanu / Unsplash
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