The UK needs to reduce its greenhouse gas output by 87% in the next 15 years. But how this happens is really anyone’s guess right now.
According to the Climate Change Committee’s [CCC] seventh carbon budget, Britain can emit 535million tonnes of CO2e between 2038 and 2042 and still remain on target.
However, in order to stay on course, the country will need to slash 87% of carbon output by 2040. While this reiterates previous budgets, which are published every five years, the latest iteration of the report does attempt to pave the way for a slightly different approach by avoiding any ‘prescriptive’ elements. This leaves the Government free to choose which policies and technologies it will rely on to get there.
This new stance coincides with the first budget published by the CCC with Emma Pinchbeck as CEO, replacing Chris Stark who is now involved in Downing Street’s clean power transition, working with energy minister Ed Miliband.
Crucially, environmentalists have sounded the alarm that previous advice – which included a blanket rejection of any proposals for net expansion of airports – is not included in the current version. This is at a time when the Labour leadership has already thrown backing behind the proposed third runway at Heathrow Airport. By removing specific roadmaps, the CCC says it is promoting a ‘balanced pathway’ to emissions reduction, rather than a prescriptive stance.
‘While the CCC exists to give “expert advice and recommendation . . . it is parliament and government’s role to do the delivery,’ said Pinchbeck. ‘But if the government wants to differ on the policy and still deliver on the carbon budget number, that is fine.’
According to Sam Hall, of the Conservative Environment Network, the budget ‘doesn’t ask consumers to give up life’s creature comforts’. Instead, it demands that private finance leads the transition through a combination of innovation and cheap energy. This view has already been flagged as potentially dangerous by environmental campaigner and lobbyists.
The continued growth of the aviation sector alone could be enough to exhaust the carbon budget and ensure the UK misses all emissions targets. Sustainable Aviation Fuel [SAF], for example, is considered a cornerstone of controlling the impact of air travel, but based on the CCC 2050 net zero pathway, this would only account for 17% of fuel used by jetliners, an increase of just 1% compared with 2023. Further scaling up will be difficult at the current pace of development, and at the expected rate of traffic and passenger increase, the sector would be the country’s largest emitter within the next 15 years.
‘The scientific analysis behind the seventh carbon budget underscores the urgent need for accelerated action to reduce carbon emissions across buildings, transport, aviation, agriculture and energy, as well as highlighting the vital role of carbon dioxide removals. This analysis identifies a significant role for private capital in low-carbon measures,’ said Dr Rhian-Mari Thomas, CEO of the Green Finance Institute.
‘Ensuring the funding landscape for each sector is fit for purpose is an integral part of effective delivery,’ they continued. ‘Financial products that deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns to investors, meeting the financing needs of households and companies, plus the availability of public capital to de-risk first-of-a-kind transactions in order to crowd in private investment, will be critical to implementation.’
One area of the economy the CCC has been forthcoming on is access to cheap, clean electricity. This includes a reduction in additional ‘levies’ on bills, which could help boost electrification of transport, heating and industry. Pinchbeck’s previous role, as CEO of Energy UK, involved calling on government to move such additional fees onto gas charges. Overall, 60% of emissions reductions rely on transferring to ‘plugged-in’ power.
‘We must ignore the siren voices of denial and delay on the climate. Green businesses are growing three times faster than the rest of the UK economy and voters of all backgrounds think we should act ambitious,’ said Shaun Spiers of the Green Alliance, nodding to a new report by the CBI and Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit showing that Britain’s net zero economy now generates over £83billion for the national economy.
‘It would be short-sighted and economically reckless if the Chancellor fails to back the green economy in the forthcoming Spending Review,’ added Friends of the Earth’s head of policy, Mike Childs. ‘She must invest in the future by insulating our heat-leaking homes, improving public transport, greening industry and developing the nation’s huge homegrown renewables potential. Failing to do so will leave the UK lagging behind in the global race to develop the industries of the future, while passing on enormous costs to future generations.’
Watch the CCC 7th Carbon Budget below.
Image: koushik das / Unsplash
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