The Government has published an alarming assessment of national security risks linked to nature depletion. Even more worrying, they delayed its release for months over concerns it was ‘too negative’.
The 12-page document – Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security – had been due last October but was delayed. It outlines a myriad of local and global threats which are emerging as a direct result of biodiversity and habit collapse.
It concludes there is now a high risk that critical ecosystems will crumble due to severe degradation, leading to a reduction in available arable land and fisheries, increased extreme weather patterns, trapped carbon release, zoonotic diseases, and cutting out capacity to treat conditions with pharmaceuticals.
Although there is a ‘high degree of uncertainty around the timing and pathways of ecosystem collapse’, it also identifies a number of areas which are at risk of beginning to collapse by 2030 or sooner. These include South East Asian marine habitats and the boreal forests. Rainforests and mangroves are likely to follow from 2050 onwards. Some ecosystems are easier to restore than others, meaning a number may already be beyond repair.
Despite the often distant locations in UK terms, it also emphasises that risks and impacts will extend well beyond the borders of individual nations. Six specific ecosystems – including the Amazon and Congo Basin – have also been flagged as critical to Britain due to the potential of population displacement, reduced life quality, carbon effects, and our reliance on food and fertiliser imports. A rise in serious organised crime, terrorists and non-state actors, pandemics, geopolitical competition, political polarisation, and military escalation are possible should they collapse.
‘Nature is a foundation of national security. Biodiversity loss is putting at risk the ecosystem services on which human societies depend, including water, food, clean air and critical resources,’ the report said.
‘The impacts will range from crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks to conflict within and between states, political instability, and erosion of global economic prosperity,’ it continued. ‘Increasingly scarce natural resources will become the focus of greater competition between state and non-state actors, exacerbating existing conflicts, starting new ones and threatening global security and prosperity.’
You can read the full document here.
The publication was delayed due to concerns among ministers that it was too negative and distressing. It comes at the same time as a separate analysis by Carbon Majors, which shows that just 32 fossil fuel companies are responsible for 50% of global carbon emissions, down from 36 last year. 17 of the top 20 are state-owned, with Saudi Aramco the biggest nationalised contributor, while ExxonMobil had the largest footprint in the private sector.
Image: Tito Texidor III / Unsplash
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