CO2 emissions need to be reduced by a further 22 Gt

To keep the 1.5°C target alive, annual CO2 emissions need to be reduced by a further 22 Gigatonnes by 2030. 

National decarbonisation pledges made as part of the Paris Agreement fell far short of keeping the planet’s average temperature rise within 1.5°C.

This new analysis, published by the Energy Transition Commission looked at those same actions and assessed the potential impact of total commitments to date, including those made during the first week of COP26.

They found that total ambitions would close the gap by 9 Gt, leaving 13 Gt still to go. These commitments would need to be fully executed to have the effect detailed.

The report also highlights that action on methane is crucial to achieving 1.5C, with an estimated 40% reduction required in 2030 annual methane emissions.

The same analysis finds that, if delivered, commitments by the close of the first week at COP26 would account for one-third of this 40% reduction.

To achieve 1.5C, both CO2 emissions and methane emissions in 2030 needed to be lower than what a business as usual pathway would deliver.

COP26 President Alok Sharma urged delegates on Friday (November 5) to step up talks in the next 24 hours in order to guarantee a successful outcome in the second and final week of the event.

He said: ‘It is not possible for a large number of unresolved issues to continue into week 2. In this context, I urge the Chairs, Groups and all delegations to expedite discussions over the coming 24 hours, focusing efforts on the balanced set of issues that are critical to what needs to be achieved here in Glasgow.’