All countries face future food insecurity

Climate change poses a huge risk to the global food trade, a new report warns. 

The report, which was conducted by the Stockholm Environment Institute looked at the transboundary climate risks (TRCs) of the agricultural trade. 

Six key agricultural commodities were assessed: staple commodities (such as rice and wheat) highly embedded commodities (soy and sugar) and luxury commodities (coffee). 

The report found that all countries are exposed to climate risks, regardless of development, power or wealth. 

Countries in Europe and North America were found to be highly exposed to TRCs via foreign imports. They may also be major sources of risk for other countries that depend on their exports for food security. 

The U.S, China and Brazil were also found to be significant sources of climate risk, posing problems for countries in Central and Latin America and the Caribbean (which depend on U.S imports) and countries in Asia and Africa (which import food from China).

Small Island Developing States and small, globally integrated countries like Singapore and Sweden are also especially vulnerable.

In contrast, as a large commodity exporter, Russia may increase agricultural production due to climate change, including the production of maize, soy, and rice, though the authors warn that this is likely not enough to offset risks elsewhere.

Simon Croft, from Stockholm Environment Institute York, said: ‘Our modelling provided the foundations upon which the assessments of transboundary climate risks in this report are conducted.

‘Given the complexity of global supply chains, especially for commodities such as palm oil, unpicking these trade linkages is essential for quantifying and mapping TCRs in detail.’

Overall, the report urges leaders at the UN Food Systems Summit and the upcoming COP26 climate change negotiations to acknowledge the important links between climate change, food security and trade, and to take action to build systemic resilience to climate impacts through multilateral cooperation.

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