The continent’s cities are likely to see a rise in fatalities over coming decades, scientists warn.
Research conducted by a team at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine projected increasing temperatures, data on population growth and density, death rates linked to heat and cold for 854 urban areas in 30 countries.
Modelling for a timeframe of 2015 to 2099, by the end of the century there could be 5.8million heat-induced deaths in Europe. When a reduction in cold-related deaths is taken into account, with around 3million fewer fatalities due to freezing conditions, this would still mean an overall increase in loss of life due to heat of around 2.3million.
The assessment does offer some hope, though. Curbing emissions in line with the Paris Agreement would help limit the increased death toll significantly. Some 70% of the additional fatalities could be avoided by reducing greenhouse gas levels which directly cause global warming. Southern Europe would be on the frontline of this, while some northern countries – including the UK – could actually see temperature-related deaths fall due to the changing climate.
However, hope is dwindling for the world’s ability to keep annual temperatures at an average of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. This week, the UK became the only major power to publish an updated nationally determined contribution [NDC] to climate change mitigation which still kept this internationally ratified target in sight. Meanwhile, the world’s second largest emitter of green gases, the US, began steps to leave the accord and double down on producing more fossil fuels. Downing Street’s roadmap has also been criticised as being too ambitious and unrealistic at the current rate of net zero investment.
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