Exxon predicts 2050 global oil demand could be higher than today

The fossil fuel giant has published new forecasts for global energy needs by mid-century, painting a bleak picture for net zero impact. 

Oil demand will remain above 100million barrels per day through to 2050, with plastic production and heavy transportation the two greatest contributors. This would be equal to current usage, although the company has said the real requirements could exceed those of today. 

Exxon’s annual Global Outlook suggests targets set by the International Energy Agency’s [IEA] Net Zero Emissions Scenario require oil demand to drop by 75% – to around 24million barrels per day – by the halfway point of this century in order to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial norms. This is stipulated in the Paris climate agreement. 

‘The IEA says, as do we, that the world is not on that pathway,’ Chris Birdsall, Exxon’s Director of Economics and Energy, told Bloomberg. ‘We have to be crystal clear on the path the world is on. Otherwise, we delude ourselves.’

Despite the worrying prediction, Exxon does expect to see greenhouse gas emissions fall after 2030, with 25% less output into the atmosphere by 2050 thanks to renewable energy growth. In the 12 months to 2024, emissions increased by 1% globally. 

While most nations are now committed to reducing emissions, and in particular carbon output, according to Exxon achieving this in real terms is becoming harder each year due to rocketing energy demands. Google, for example, has seen its carbon contribution grow by 50% since 2019, with AI behind the exponential increase. 

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Image: Zbynek Burival