Coastal flooding could cost developing nations millions

Coastal flooding caused by the climate crisis could leave developing nations with huge costs in the coming decades a new study has found.

Research led by the University of Melbourne investigated expected annual costs and the number of people impacted by flooding as sea levels rise across the globe.

Results show that developing nations would be disproportionately affected by flooding, with annual damage in many countries expected to cost over 5% of national GDP. Developed nations, on the other hand, would face annual damage costs of less than 3% of national GDP.

This is because developing countries are usually more exposed to rising sea levels and have less capacity to fund climate resilience measures like coastal defences.

Professor of Engineering Ian Young said: ‘This research shows the human and financial cost of climate change and how unequally its effects will be felt.

‘Developing nations will be devastated, both in terms of people impacted and their economies. If the money to mitigate this impact in developing countries is not found, communities will be forced into coastal retreat and there will be significant social disruption, including an increase in climate refugees across borders.’

Researchers created a database to model and project coastal flooding in more than 9000 locations in 2050 and 2100, using 2015 data as a baseline.

Two scenarios were modelled, one where coastal defence measures were taken and another where they weren’t, with results showing these measures are significantly useful in reducing the impact of flooding.

Parts of Asia, West Africa and Egypt are predicted to face the most severe impacts by the year 2100 irrespective of adaptation scenarios.

Other nations expected to see severe flooding include Suriname, Vietnam, Macao (Special Administrative Region of China), Myanmar, Bangladesh, Kuwait, Mauritania, Guyana, Guinea-Bissau, Egypt and Malaysia.

Without climate adaptation measures, the number of people affected by extreme flooding could increase form 34 million per year in 2015 to 246 million people by 2100. Annual global costs to deal with flooding damage could also increase from 0.3% of global GDP in 2015 to 2.9% by 2100.

If coastal defences are put in place this translates to 119 million people affected by coastal flooding each year and annual global costs of 1.1% of GDP.

‘There is no doubt this is a wicked problem, which initiatives such as the recent United Nations Climate Change conference COP27, held in Egypt, are grappling with,’ Professor Young said.

Photo by jim gade